Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
